Evidence first. Uncertainty included.

How a market move becomes an explanation

1. Detect a significant move

The monitoring worker compares price observations over configured time windows. Trigger thresholds and cooldowns determine whether a move creates a new event or updates an existing one. Not every quote change becomes a report.

2. Collect relevant evidence

Research retrieves available asset news and broader market context around the event. Sources are stored with identifiers, publication timestamps and relevance information. Crypto research can also include available derivatives context; coverage varies by provider.

3. Assess and explain

Provider-based automated analysis produces a structured explanation. Depending on configuration and availability, generation uses a remote model or a rules-based fallback. Grounding checks reject nonexistent source identifiers and require stored evidence for a clear catalyst.

4. Publish the evidence trail

Event pages show the explanation, classification, confidence and sources. Sources cited by the explanation are distinguished from additional context. These automated checks are not equivalent to independent human fact-checking.

What do the labels mean?

Confirmed catalyst

A directly documented event, such as a filing or regulatory action. This does not prove it explains the entire price move.

Likely catalyst

Evidence supports a plausible explanation, but causal attribution remains uncertain.

Supporting factor or correlation

Related market conditions or simultaneous moves provide context, not proof of a primary cause.

Unknown

Available evidence is insufficient to identify a clear catalyst. This does not mean nothing happened.

Low, medium and high confidence summarize evidence strength. The numerical scores are model or rule outputs, not statistically calibrated probabilities or investment recommendations.

Where does the information come from?

Current public-data adapters include Yahoo Finance for market observations, Coinbase for crypto quotes, and publisher RSS feeds and GDELT for news discovery. Availability and delays differ across assets and sources. A news aggregator is a discovery service, not necessarily the original publisher.

Use the publisher links on each event to inspect the underlying reporting. TickWhy does not independently verify every statement in an external article. Multiple articles repeating the same report are not necessarily independent corroboration.

Quotes and candles may be delayed, stale or unavailable, especially outside market hours or during provider outages. Event prices describe the recorded event window. Compare both the date and time before interpreting an old event as a current move.

How should I read theme scores?

Theme scores combine the components for which data is available, including relative performance, member breadth and source-linked catalyst activity. Available weights are normalized; missing inputs are not assigned invented values. Read the component breakdown and data coverage alongside the overall score.

Theme returns summarize observed members, not a tradable fund or a market-cap-weighted index. Session moves can measure session open to latest close rather than previous close to current price. Historical scores are stored snapshots; there may be fewer observations than the displayed time range.

A high score does not predict a future return. Member selection, missing observations and delayed candles can change the interpretation.

Updates and limitations

Research can change as new evidence arrives. Event pages display the recorded detection and update timestamps; they are not updated simply to appear fresh. Demo events are labeled and excluded from the public event feed and event sitemap entries.

No clear catalyst, missing sources or delayed data are valid outcomes. Automated analysis can still be wrong. Check original sources independently and read the market information disclaimer.

Explore market moves, themes or the RSS event feed.